國家教育研究院

　　國內鮮少以新移民家庭子女為母群體進行長期性的觀察，了解其學習表現成長趨勢和相關重要影響因素對其學習表現之影響。本縱貫性研究延續2012年四年級新移民家庭子女的大規模調查結果（large-scale assessment），從既有臺灣北區樣本中，透過分層叢集抽樣方式，再抽取最接近母群分配的代表性樣本878人，於2014年、2015年分別進行代表性樣本就讀六年級、七年級的追蹤。本研究為2015年進行的第三波調查，研究目的在於追蹤新移民家庭子女自六年級至七年級的就學流向，並剖析小學時期之學習表現對於七年級數學學習表現的影響。耗時五個月，確認七年級仍於臺灣北區就學且非在家自學、學習障礙等可受測人數為809人，實際填答問卷人數共777人（96.04%），平均年齡為13.38歲。研究工具為學生問卷，包括自評數學學習自信心24題和學習相關因素80題。數學學習自信心乃比照PISA題型，針對七年級數學學習內容「數與量」與「代數」設計數學題，Cronbach’s alpha分別為.88和.97。學習相關因素以期望價值理論為基礎建構題項，構念Cronbach’s alpha介於.72至.92之間。以Rasch model和固定試題參數（fixed common item parameter calibration）估計2012年和2014年學生數學能力值。以結構迴歸模式（structural regression model）估計影響因素強弱。使用的軟體為Acer ConQuest 4和Mplus 7.11。研究發現，追蹤樣本就讀學校數由小學43校增加至中學120所公私立中學，第三波追蹤率達92.14%（流失率attrition rate 7.86%）。六年級數學成績越好的，對於七年級「數與量單元」文字題型的自信心最高，對於七年級「代數單元」代數題型的自信心最高。本最後針對研究發現提出建議。

　　This study is the third investigation in 2015 that aims to track the schooling trends of new immigrant children from Grade 6 to Grade 7 and to analyze the influence of students’ study performance in elementary school on their Grade 7 mathematics performance. This study was conducted for 5 months, confirming the number of measurable subjects studying in Taiwan North area for Grade 7 was 809, excluding the homeschooled students and any with learning disorders; the number of subjects who actually answered the questionnaire was 777 (96.04%) with an average age of 13.38 years old. The research tool used was the questionnaire for students, including 24 questions for self-assessment of students’ confidence in mathematical study and 80 questions relating to study factors. The 24 questions for confidence in mathematical study were designed based on PISA questions regarding the topics of “Number and Quantity“ and “Algebra“ in Grade 7 mathematics; the Cronbach’s alpha values were 0.88 and 0.97, respectively. The 80 questions relating to study factors were designed based on Expectancy-Value Theory, and the Cronbach’s alpha values were between 0.72 and 0.92. The mathematics literacy of the students in 2012 and 2014 was estimated using the Rasch model and fixed common item parameter calibration. The influence strength was assessed using the structural regression model. Acer ConQuest 4 and Mplus 7.11 software was adopted during the process. The study showed that the number of schools attended by the tracked samples increased from 43 elementary schools to 120 public and private high schools, with a tracking rate of 92.14% in the third investigation (the attrition rate was 7.86%). The students with better mathematics performance in Grade 6 showed the strongest confidence in the spoken language type problems of the “Number and Quantity Topic“ and the written symbols type problems of the “Algebra Topic,“ both designed for Grade 7 students. Based on the study results, this project provides suggestions for mathematics education and future research.